Over/Under 1.5 Goals Method

This method is one which can be used alongside the Lay The Draw method to create a pretty decent profit on a particular game. It can also be used to break even on the match should one or the other go wrong.  

Laying Under 1.5 goals means that you want there to be MORE than 1.5 goals in the game. Two or more goals, and we're in the green!

This method is simple, but does require a little research.   In a nutshell, if your research shows that this game should have goals, then Lay Under 1.5 Goals.

Going back to the Lay The Draw method, remember that if the draw odds are above 5, then the sensible thing to do would be to leave that game alone, as the risk becomes too high for the reward.   Of course, if draw odds are over 5 then there is also usually a clear winner, such as in the Arsenal v West Ham example below which I also mentioned on the Lay The Draw page.

The fact that the market shows a clear favourite also affects the goals market in a negative way for us traders. In a game such as the above, Under 1.5 goals is available to Lay at 7.6:
As a rule of thumb with any trade, I won't lay anything over 5, so this not only makes the Lay The Draw method a no-go, but also the Under 1.5 goals.

This match therefore becomes a no-go for trading. These high draw odds with a perceived strong favourite are no good to us generally speaking because if the favourite doesn't go so well, it causes a lot of trouble and in the long run, a lot of red! Don't be tempted into something you might think is a sure bet, because there is no such thing!

Generally speaking, Under 1.5 goals will not be available pre-match at anywhere near evens. At best, you'd be looking to Lay Under 1.5 at around 3.5 to 5, but when it gets up over 5, you'll end up risking too much money.   

So that's the sort of thing to avoid - what do you want to go for? Lets get onto a proper match example. A game that would match this strategy perfectly as I write this is Blackburn v Chelsea.

This game is also a possible Lay The Draw chance, as the draw is available to lay at 4.6 and I have covered this match on the Lay The Draw page.

With regards to the Over/Under 1.5 goals, the market currently looks like this:
Now the research behind this trade says that Chelsea should run out winners at Ewood Park. It's not an easy place to go by any means, but so far out of the Premier League "big four", only Arsenal have played away at Blackburn, and won 2-1.

Chelsea are currently flying high in the Premier League, sitting at the top of the table, five points clear, and have a goal difference of +23. That is by far and away the best in the Premier League - clearly Chelsea don't have any problems scoring!

Last season, Chelsea beat Blackburn 5-0 at home and drew 1-1 away. Both results would have seen us profit. Chelsea have lost only once at Ewood Park in 13 years previously, which suggests that they should win again here, and with Chelsea scoring 17 goals in their last 9 matches, I don't foresee a problem in securing this trade and greening up in play.

Therefore, based on every statistic I have available to me and the fact that Chelsea are flying in the Premier League at the moment, this game qualifies and I am happy to Lay Under 1.5 goals at 4.5.

Remember, based on the double the odds, half the stake method shown in the Introduction on this website, we will be looking to "green up" at odds of 9 - double the 4.5 we got in at.
As you can see, I've Layed Under 1.5 Goals for £100 at 4.5. This means that if there are Under 1.5 goals and I left the trade in until the end (making it a bet rather than a trade) then I would lose £350. However, if there were Over 1.5 goals and I left the trade in until the end (again making it a bet rather than a trade!) then I would win £100.

Using the method above, I'd be looking to Back Under 1.5 goals at odds of 9 for £50. This would leave me with a nice green screen of £50 if there are Under 1.5 goals and £50 if there are Over 1.5 goals. I could then enjoy the rest of the game no matter what happened!

As it happens with the above trade, Blackburn went 1-0 up after 22 minutes through Benjani. Now whilst I always recommend that you trade out and lock in the profit, at this stage it is your decision as to whether you want to stay in or not.

The odds would have gone up past 9, but I had no doubt that Chelsea would get a goal at some stage during the game. So whilst if you wish you can trade out for the profit, the beauty of the 1.5 Goals method is that if you really think there will be another, you can leave it in and win the whole lot. This is the only method for which I would ever advocate leaving a bet in.

In this case, Chelsea equalised after 39 minutes and we had the full £100 in the bag. If you wanted to get out for £50, I could have done so after the first goal went in on 22 minutes and enjoyed the rest of the game!

As I said, this is entirely your choice and you must understand the risks involved if you leave it open for another goal. I would say that if you expected goals anyway and the first one comes in the first 20 minutes or so, it's usually fairly safe to leave it open to bring home the whole lot. If the first goal is around the half time mark, I'd recommend trading out and taking the green available - after all, it's taken a whole half to get one goal, you don't want to risk it taking another whole half to get your winner!