Hi guys,
We had an excellent day on day 5 with two out of two. The two trades we did were as follows:
Lech Poznan v Man City - Lay Under 1.5 Goals - there were definitely goals in this one and so it proved. It took a while for the first one to go in, but was pretty much plain sailing after that and based on our £20 Lay, we managed to stay in for the full amount when the second goal went in. It was a great start to the night. £20 up.
The second game I traded was Liverpool v Napoli - Lay Over 2.5 Goals. Based on Liverpool's previous games in this competition, home and away, I didn't think we'd see many goals in this one. It turned out I was wrong, but the trade still won. Napoli scored the opener in the first half and things weren't looking good for a while, but it took until the 75th minute for the second goal to go in and by that time, we were out for £10.
For the purposes of this blog and the amount of profit and loss, and bank, I won't be doing spur of the moment trades here. However, with my own bank I also layed Napoli as soon as they scored. Liverpool were playing alright, particularly at the start of the second half, and if another goal was going to come, it was only going to be scored by the home side.
Also, as soon as I got out of my 2.5 Lay, I Layed Under 1.5 Goals. There were around 20 minutes to go so the odds were evens, a bargain seeing as Liverpool were pressing hard and you could see Napoli starting to struggle.
As soon as Gerrard equalised, I got the full amount back from that one too so all in all a great night personally.
As I said, for the purposes of this blog I'll only be recording the official trades. However, I hope to be able to give you an insight into what sort of opportunities you should be looking for all the time with trading. Don't just rest on your laurels waiting for your trade to come in, be active and look for other opportunities in-play.
I had every confidence of getting the bank back up after our horrific Monday night, and so it has proved. You mustn't panic when faced with a big loss. Losing days happen. Stick to your methods and keep plugging away and you'll turn it around.
We've made 20% of our bank this week in profit, even with a poor Monday, and that's an interest rate you wont ever find in a savings account!
There is nothing on tonight, so time for a well earned rest before a busy weekend!
Day 5 Profit/Loss: £30
Closing Bank: £122.96
Sorry for the lack of posting yesterday - it was a manic night but I still got some Champions League trades in and we did well.
I did the following:
Chelsea v CSKA Moscow - Lay Under 3.5 Goals. This one went well as there were no goals until near enough half time and that was enough to see us out with £5 green. This is a prime example as to why you MUST trade out to lock in the profit. It turned out the game finished 4-1 so had we left it in as a bet, we'd have lost comfortably!
AC Milan v Real Madrid - Lay The Draw. This was a disappointment. Real went 1-0 up and looked comfortable but just as we were due to trade out for another £5 green, Inzaghi spoiled the party by equalising. We had to take the loss as the stop loss was activated and we lost £7 on this game. Disappointing but these things happen. As it turned out, had we left it in we would have won the trade as AC took the lead again on 78 minutes, but we were already out and the game ended up finishing 2-2. £2 on the night.
Shakhtar v Arsenal - Lay Arsenal. Arsenal have never won in the Ukraine and the last four games between these sides have been won by the team at home. The Shakhtar we saw at the Emirates a couple of weeks ago was not a good reflection of the very good team that they actually are. They should have been too strong for a weakened Arsenal and so it proved, despite Walcott giving the gunners the lead early on. A good result in this one and we were able to trade out at half time with Shakhtar 2-1 up. £7.50.
The final trade of the night was Auxerre v Ajax - Lay Ajax. Auxerre are a strong side at home in the Champions League and so it proved tonight as they were pretty comfortable throughout. As soon as Auxerre took the lead early on we were able to trade out for our £6.50.
So all in all a good night, with only one losing trade. £12 green on the night and the bank is heading back up.
Day 4 Profit/Loss: £12
Closing Bank: £92.96
Right, here's to a new day and some fresh trades to try and get the ball rolling again!
I'm looking at three trades tonight.
Firstly, Valencia v Rangers. Rangers did well to hold Man United to a 0-0 draw at Old Trafford a few weeks ago, and having already also held Valencia to a 1-1 draw at Ibrox, they'll be confident going into this one. Having said that, I don't see them causing Valencia too many problems going forward and will set up to defend stoutly as they did at United.
I'm looking at the Over 3.5 Goals market - will Valencia score four? I don't think they will. For that reason, I'm Laying Over 3.5 Goals for £10 at 3.45.
Valencia v Rangers. Lay Over 3.5 Goals for £7.50 @ 3.45. Risk = £18.38.
The second match is Copenhagen v Barcelona. This match finished 2-0 to Barce at the Nou Camp a couple of weeks ago, but it was a very open game and Copenhagen could have nicked it. This will be a tricky tie for Barce and I don't see it being as open as last time. Barce won't come out as much away from home, and whilst they could nick it by a goal, again I don't see there being four in this one.
Copenhagen v Barcelona. Lay Over 3.5 Goals for £10 @ 3.15. Risk = £21.50.
The final game I'm looking at is Tottenham v Inter. The game finished 4-3 in the San Siro, despite the fact Spurs had 10 men, the game was open and attacking from the off. With Spurs at home and in desperate need of a win, they simply have to go for it tonight and I fancy them to score a couple, plus Inter will be very dangerous on the break with Eto'o upfront.
Tottenham v Inter. Lay Under 1.5 Goals for £10 @ 4. Risk = £30.
Fingers crossed for a better night than yesterday!
Update 1 - Beautiful goal from Spurs through Rafael Van Der Vaart who continues his hot scoring form at home. We're only 18 minutes into the game and the U1.5 Lay is looking good, so instead of trading out now for the £5, I'll look to stay in here for the whole £10. I'd never advocate turning your trade into a bet except on the 1.5 goals market as mentioned in my football pages of this website, so lets hope the next goal comes quickly!
Elsewhere, the games are all 0-0 so we're looking good on the Over 3.5 lays at the moment. However, things can change quickly in football so we won't be counting any chickens yet!!
Update 2 - Still waiting for that decisive goal in the Spurs game after 30 minutes and rather annoyingly just when our exit odds were coming up for the Copenhagen v Barcelona Under 3.5 Goals Lay, Barce took the lead through Lionel Messi. Two minutes later Copenhagen have equalised so that one's looking decidedly edgy now and we'll have to keep a close eye on that and if there's another goal before half time we'll be taking the loss.
Exactly the same, Valencia v Rangers, the odds were one tick away from our exit and Valencia took the lead. I suspect this may be a little less worrying than the Barce game for the time being but again, these are two matches we'll have to be careful on.
Update 3 - Quick update at half time. I've re-evaluated the Barce game and it's looking very precarious. According to the half time report on Sky Sports News, Barce look very dangerous and bearing in mind how open the game was at the Nou Camp, I think we're risking it a bit here. One early goal in the second half and we've had it. I've backed Over 3.5 Goals at 2.08 for a red of £5.15.
We're going well on the Spurs and Valencia trades so taking the red in the Barce game is a small price to pay bearing in mind the risk of £21.50 which we'll be well open to if an early goal goes in.
These are the kinds of decisions you have to make when you're trading, without regrets or hesitations. Make your decision and stick with it. It could go on to finish 1-1. These things do happen. However, you've got to make a decision on a case by case basis and accept it whatever the final score may be.
Update 4 - Still waiting for that deciding goal in the Spurs game and that's always the risk you take when leaving a trade in on a game instead of taking the green when its available.
Elsewhere, the Valencia game is still 1-0 and our exit point has been hit, so we've made back the loss on the Barce game by trading out for £5.07.
Lets hope Spurs or Inter can help us out in the last 35 minutes of this game to ensure we end the night on a high!
Update 5 - There's the goal we were looking for, right on the hour mark. A super run by Bale down the left and an undefendable ball in and Crouch just had to make contact to get the ball in. 2-0 Spurs, game over, bet won. £10 green.
That's a total tonight of £9.92 and nice to be back to winning ways!
Day 3 Profit/Loss: £9.92
Closing Bank: £80.96
After an excellent start to the blog, we have another game of interest tonight.
Blackpool are at home to high flying West Brom in the Monday Night Live game on Sky Sports 1. It's always good to trade a game whilst you're watching it, and with nothing else of interest tonight, this is the game for me.
Looking at the statistics available, Blackpool are struggling at the moment in the Premier League. They haven't won at home yet this season and aren't scoring as many goals as they'd like. Their only Premier League win in their last five games was at a shock 2-1 defeat of Liverpool at Anfield. They've lost the other four.
West Brom meanwhile find themselves at the right end of the table and have won their last four league games against Blackpool, including both home and away last season. West Brom are unbeaten in their last six Premier League matches and would be disappointed not to come away without at least a point tonight.
With the odds available, I have to take Blackpool on at odds of 3, so will be Laying Blackpool for £20.
Lay Blackpool @ 3 for £20 - Risk = £40.
Another market of interest is the Over/Under 2.5 Goals market. The odds look good, Over 2.5 Goals is clearly favourite at 1.8. I fancy that we could lay this for £10 and look to trade out before half time. 10 of West Brom's 13 league goals have come in the second half and Blackpool are struggling to score at the moment.
Lay Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.8 for £10 - Risk = £8
So there we have it. Lets see how we go tonight - fingers crossed!!
Update - Rather annoyingly Blackpool won a penalty 9 minutes into the game. It was a definite penalty and sometimes these things happen. The red card really stuck us though as that made the Blackpool odds plummet after the goal was scored.
Having layed Blackpool at 3 for £20, I backed them at 1.3 for £46.92, trading out for a loss of £26.92 on all results. I have left the 2.5 goals lay in.
There are ways of clawing back some money in games like these but you MUST NOT chase your losses. Accept that you do lose at times, unfortunate as it may be, and just accept it and move on.
However, should another genuine trading opportunity become available, there's nothing wrong with taking that on as well. You may lose that trade too and just increase your red, but as I mentioned you need to make sure it's a definite clear trading opportunity.
For example, if West Brom were to equalise, I'd use the Lay The Draw method and hope for a winner. If it stays 1-0 until half time, I may be able to take a small green on my 2.5 Lay, and do a further trade on Laying Under 1.5 Goals for a nice profit if and when the second goal goes in.
These are all opportunities you must bear in mind when trading a game in play. You're never limited to one particular market. Just ensure you're thinking clearly and plan for your stop loss as you would usually do.
We're 24 minutes in now and it's still 1-0, so lets see how the Under 2.5 Lay goes.
Another update, WBA have just had another player sent off after 30 minutes, and to be honest a real shocking challenge. I've traded out of the 2.5 Goals Lay now for a red of £2.82 - I'd be amazed if West Brom held on to the 1-0 with just nine men for an hour!
Instead, talking of opportunities, I've layed Under 2.5 instead at odds of 3 for £20. That's a risk of £40. Because of my previous loss on this market, it means my screen shows £17.18 on Over 2.5 goals and £42.82 on Under 2.5 goals.
Update 2 - Rather annoyingly, an hour into the match, it's still Blackpool 1-0 up and the Under 2.5 lay is starting to look a little bit red. I've traded out of the lay therefore for another red. Taking into account the £2.82 we had in the first place, it's a total loss on this market of £15.78.
No sooner did I trade out than, even more annoyingly, Blackpool bagged another! 2-0 up with 25 minutes to go, and I'm going to go back in again. As another trade in its own right, WBA should tire now, gaps will begin to appear, and Blackpool can capitalise.
We're now looking at £66.78 on Under 2.5 Goals and £4.21 on Over 2.5 Goals. So bring on another goal and lets wipe some red off tonight!
Final Update - I cant risk anymore on this game with 15 minutes to go. It's just been one of those impossible nights which you get every now and then. Blackpool will probably go on and score a third but these things happen and we just have to accept the red and get on with it. We have Champions League and Europa league to go this week so I'm still confident the bank will be up by Saturday!
So we're out for £32.26 on the Over/Under 2.5 Goals market and £26.92 on the match odds. All in all a poor night, but these things happen and its time to move on.
Day 2 Profit/Loss: £59.18
Closing Bank: £71.06
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